Call for a Green World

Reducing global CO2 emissions will require a broad range of different technologies working across all sectors of the economy in various combinations and applications. These technologies are at widely varying stages of development, but we can already map out how much they are likely to need to contribute to the emissions reductions necessary to meet international energy and climate goals. Around half of the cumulative emissions reductions that would move the world onto a sustainable trajectory1 come from four main technology approaches. These are the electrification of end-use sectors such as heating and transport; the application of carbon capture, utilisation and storage; the use of low-carbon hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels; and the use of bioenergy. However, each of these areas faces challenges in making all parts of its value chain commercially viable in the sectors where reducing emissions is hardest.  Around 35% of the cumulative CO2 emissions reductions needed to shift to a sustainable path come from technologies currently at the prototype or demonstration phase. A further 40% of the reductions rely on technologies not yet commercially deployed on a mass-market scale. This calls for urgent efforts to accelerate innovation. The fastest energy-related examples in recent decades include consumer products like LEDs and lithium ion batteries, which took 10-30 years to go from the first prototype to the mass market. These examples must be the benchmarks for building the array of energy technologies to get to net-zero emissions. Relative to a case in which there is no improvement to technologies already in use today, early-stage technologies provide about one-third of the emissions reductions in the Faster Innovation Case. In practice, this case would require, for example, an average of two new hydrogen-based steel plants to begin operating every month between now and 2050. Currently, technology for these plants is only at the prototype stage. At the same time, 90 new bioenergy plants that capture and store their own CO2 emissions would need to be built every year. Today, there is only one large-scale facility in operation Relative to a case in which there is no improvement to technologies already in use today, early-stage technologies provide about one-third of the emissions reductions in the Faster Innovation Case. In practice, this case would require, for example, an average of two new hydrogen-based steel plants to begin operating every month between now and 2050. Currently, technology for these plants is only at the prototype stage. At the same time, 90 new bioenergy plants that capture and store their own CO2 emissions would need to be built every year. Today, there is only one large-scale facility in operation. For some energy sectors, 2050 is just one investment cycle away, making the timing of investments and the availability of new technologies critical. Boosting spending on low-carbon research and development and increasing investments in key demonstration projects for the most challenging sectors can be particularly effective. If the right technologies in the steel, cement and chemical sectors can reach the market in time for the next 25-year refurbishment cycle – due to start around 2030 – they can prevent nearly 60 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions (GtCO2).